Taking Time Off from Poker

(Note: if you want a reference to poker lingo, click here.)

I’m taking at least three months off from poker. To reevaluate. And for financial reasons. The last week cemented my decision.

As you know, I’ve been playing in the World Poker Tour series at the Wynn Las Vegas. I didn’t do well until my cash in the WPT Prime Championship. That gave me the encouragement to enter the much more expensive WPT World Championship. The entry fee was $10,400 but had a guaranteed prize pool of $40 million, with first place earning over $5 million.

I entered Day 1B last Wednesday. I busted out after a few hours. I was at a table with a wild player. Several times I saw him bet very big on the river with just a pair, or possibly worse because sometimes he mucked his losing hand without showing. On one hand, he went up against a professional who I recognized. On the river, the wild player bet really big. The pro thought for a while before calling. The wild player showed top pair, kings. The pro showed two small pairs to win the hand. “Wow,” I said out loud, “I guess I don’t even know how to play real poker.” I would never have bet that big with a pair or called the bet with only two small pairs. Another pro at the table shrugged and said, “Everyone plays their own game.” I took that to mean that he agreed with me.

I got dealt A♣4♠ in the big blind. When the wild player raised under the gun, everyone folded but I called. The flop was A♥9♦5♦. I bet; he called. The turn was 4♦, giving me two pair but with three diamonds on the board. I bet big and he called. The river was 6♣. I bet big again and he raised to almost my entire stack. I thought I’d seen this movie before. I had a big two pair, and he could have anything. Since he raised pre-flop and called each street, I put him on a big pair or a big A, which made it likely I was ahead. So I called. Except this time he had a flush. I lost most of my stack on that hand and the rest of it on the next hand. I had only played a couple hours or less.

I was really disappointed. I had been looking forward to this event for months. I talked to Carrie about entering a second time. We agreed that I would enter a second time and forgo poker for three months if I didn’t cash. On Friday, I reentered the WPT World Championship. I decided to play really tight, not taking any chances, folding any hands where I questioned whether I was ahead or was simply risking too many chips. I focused for 12 hours straight. My stack had remained about average all day until toward the end of the day, when I started to get good cards and good hands. My stack went well above average with less than two hours to go. I felt that maybe I had finally cracked the game. Then a long streak of bad cards whittled down my stack to 50K in chips, which would be just over 8 big blinds on Day 2, a desperately low stack. It was among the bottom 10 stacks out of more than 1,300 players left.

On Saturday, I set out for the Wynn, somewhat dejected, expecting to be out very quickly. Before play began, a dealer saw my embarrassing stack of two 25K chips and predicted I would get pocket 9s on my first hand and quadruple up. It didn’t quite happen that way, but…

I folded my first hand. On my second hand I shoved with AJ. I got one caller with... AJ. We chopped, but because of the blinds and antes that I split, my stack increased to almost 10 big blinds. Still very short, but better.

Soon I got AJ again and shoved. I got called by a player with AK. As the board ran out without a J, I got up to leave and wished everyone luck. But the players called me back. There were two pairs on the board, 3s and 7s, so we chopped the pot. Again. I was at about 12 big blinds.

I then shoved under the gun with pocket 4s. Not a great pair, but I would be the big blind on the next hand, which would further dwindle my small stack. I got called by A♥10♥, but my pair held, and I doubled up! He actually had a flush draw on the flop, with two hearts on the board.

After a while, my stack increased to over the starting stack of 100K. This was just a milestone for me, because the average stack was well above starting stack at this point in the tournament. However, my stack was increasing, though slowly.

Then I won a big pot with AQ when the board ran out Q279A. The other player kept betting and I kept calling until the river when I raised big and he folded. He said, “I let you get there with the ace, didn’t I?” When he said that, I figured his hand had been weak the whole time. “I was ahead of you from the start,” I replied.

Then I lost a big pot with A9 when the board ran out K3963. I believed my pairs of 9s and 3s were good, but when the other player bet the size of my entire stack on the river, I had to fold. I still think I was ahead of him but couldn't take the chance. My stack was still OK at that time, and I eventually got to over 20 big blinds, a small but comfortable stack.

At that time, there were 1,164 players left out of almost 4,000 entries, and 480 would get paid.

Then I went card dead for about an hour. It’s difficult to weather such bad cards with such a low stack.

Then I won a hand with pocket 4s again. I had limped pre-flop. Everyone folded but the big blind. The flop was AA7. I bet and he folded.

To my right sat Santosh Suvarna, a famous Indian poker player. He had played the night before on the televised table where, I was told, he lost most of his gigantic stack. He lost more chips at the table this morning, so that he actually had a smaller stack than me. Santosh shoved from the small blind. I called with A♥K♥. He had A♣Q♠. The flop was AKJ. I was thrilled with top two pair, already imagining doubling up and having a very nice stack. The turn was a very safe 3. But the river was a 10, giving him a straight. I had 2 big blinds left.

On the next hand, I got AQ and shoved. I got called by A 10. I won to double up.

On the next hand, I shoved with pocket 9s. I got called by pocket As. I flopped a set of 9s to win. Luck was certainly with me!

On the next hand, I got Q♥J♥. I did a min raise. Another player shoved. I called. He had K♣J♣. The board ran out 9♣10♣7♦8♣ giving me a straight. I jumped up and shouted hooray until another player pointed out that it gave the other player a flush. I busted out at number 1,093.

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I thought I found a loophole in my agreement to give up poker for a while, in that I think I said “after today.” So I talked to Carrie about entering another tournament at the Orleans Casino. It was a relatively small buy-in of $550 but first place would get almost $100,000. The Orleans is a somewhat seedy place with worn chairs, sticky poker tables, filled with cigarette smoke and attended by lower class clientele. But they get lots and lots of players to their tournaments, which drives up the prize pool.

At the Orleans, I got AQ several times in a row in my first few hands, but ended up splitting pots with other players including one where I shoved on the turn with a straight draw and got my straight on the river only to get called by another player with AQ. Then I got pocket As and shoved against another player who had bet large before the flop. He called, showed pocket 9s, flopped a set, and I was out.

Without thinking, and without asking Carrie (I’m sorry!), I just bought back into the tournament again.

Shortly after buying back in, I knocked out a short stack, giving me an above-average stack even though it was already late into the tournament.

In one incredible hand, I got dealt AQ. Before the flop, one player limped. The short stack in the small blind shoved. I shoved from the big blind. Then the first player shoved and showed KK. The short stack also had AQ. It looked really bad for the short stack and me, but one of the two remaining aces came on the flop. The short stack and I split some of the first player's stack, and I got what was left over. I had a giant stack, by far the biggest at the table.

Unfortunately, the shorter stacks all started shoving. Then even the larger stacks started shoving, so I needed to tighten up. I was only going to play great hands so that I could preserve my large stack.

Then I called a big stack's obvious bluff and got a lot more chips. I might have been the tournament chip leader at that time.

But everyone kept shoving, so my stack started dwindling just from the increasing blinds and antes.

The one possible mistake was when I bet on 9♦8♦ and the turn produced three diamonds, giving me a flush. The other player bet large, and I called. Getting a flush is rare, and his big bet seemed to be a signal to discourage me from staying in the hand. Maybe he had a set, two pair, or even a straight. On the river, another diamond appeared. This told me that he could win with any diamond larger than a 9. He bet about half my stack. I thought that this was a signal that he did not have a great hand and wanted me out. If he had a big flush, he’d bet smaller to get me to call the bet. Or maybe he was using reverse psychology. Looking back, my best choices were to fold and preserve my stack or go all in to make him believe I held the A♦. Instead, I called, and he showed K♦Q♦ to win.

Shortly after that, I got dealt pocket Js and shoved. A player who had been shoving almost every hand called with pocket 9s. I felt good but not for long. He hit a 9 on the flop. I busted out only a dozen players short of Day 2 and the money.

After all of this I was really disappointed. I’ll keep my promise to Carrie to give up poker for at least three months. I think I played the best poker I possibly could in these last couple days, if not the last few weeks. And yet still I ended up with a poor record and a large financial loss. Am I very unlucky? Am I not the good player I think I am? Or is poker something that is much more luck than skill? I’ll think about these things in the next three months. Or maybe I’ll just find another hobby. We’ll see.

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If you like my poker blogs, you’ll like my book Election Hacks, a first-hand account of the story of my debunking the 2020 election fraud “proof” of pillow salesman Mike Lindell and the subsequent arbitration that awarded me $5 million.