I agree that time off doesn’t affect the odds, but it can make it more enjoyable and affect decision making.
I read somewhere once about expectations of tournament poker:
Assuming you are good at fundamental tournament play and make good decisions, on average you can expect to cash 1/10 tournaments and win 1/100 tournaments. Now that doesn’t mean you’ll do that every 10 and 100 tournaments. It could work out to cashing 0 out of 20 but 6 out 30, or winning 0 out of 200 but 5 out of 400, etc.
It’s such a long run game. Emotional perseverance is essential. For me that includes breaks from playing.
Thanks for the post Bob. Unfortunately I can relate. My recent 12 day trip to the Lake Tahoe WSOP circuit event had terrible results. I played 8 tournaments, with 1 cash.
I planned and prepared for months leading up to the trip. While there, I slept well, exercised daily, ate healthy, meditated, stayed God centered, focused, and made excellent decisions. None of it mattered.
I had the best of it so many times that I lost count. I was the chip leader through the middle of day 1 of the Main Event, until I lost multiple hands, with the best hand, through 2 levels, and busted.
Standard deviations. That’s all it is. Though that intense run of bad luck is outside the norm, it is still within the realm of expected results.
I have a bad taste in my mouth from that trip and will be taking time off from poker. I friend of mine said that I should be doing the opposite-that more play will smooth out the fluctuations. He is right, but my mental health is more important right now:)
James, I'm sorry to hear that. Most friends tell me to take some time off for a while when things are going badly. I don't believe it changes the odds, it just gets you in a more relaxed frame of mind. I don't know. Maybe it all comes down to luck. I made a little spreadsheet poker calculator and determined if I play just a little better than average in a tournament, my wins are slightly positive over time. But if I play average, then I lose money over time due to the casino fee. And if I play worse than average...
I keep thinking that maybe I'm just playing average in which case I'll rarely cash and even more rarely get first place. Let me know what you decide and I'll let you know, too. At least you have a WSOP bracelet, which shows excellence at poker--don't forget that.
Thanks for the painful but honest read. Poker is a brutal game. I read that even the best pocket hand of aces only has only a 33% of winning. (Never personally confirmed but seems reasonable). If your bankroll can sustain it, I think if you quit you will always wonder if you should have kept at it. Just my sense from our time together. It will seem like unfinished business.
An interesting concept I read about it is that poker is a theory of pot acquisition not winning cards. Perhaps there are irrationalities that you can add to your play that may cause other people to fold prematurely to not end up in the all
Or nothing hands. Don’t know your play style well enough. But I do know you are very rational, and probabilities while rational only become more so over large samples. And you are likely in a bad run. I bid you peace in your decision.
Thanks, Charles. In my spare time, I'm writing a program to confirm the odds, but I don't have much spare time. Pocket aces in heads-up game (two player) have something like a 66% chance of winning before the flop. But I believe it goes down to 33% when there are 9 players in the hand. I've argued with some poker pros that playing against 8 bad players is a losing proposition and they've said that you just need to wait to play a great hand. I point out that pocket aces come once in 221 hands, and if everyone bets, you're more likely to lose than win. To wait out a table of bad players, you need a lot of money and a lot of time. In a tournament, where chips and time are limited, you're more likely to bust out first.
You're right that I'll feel like it's "unfinished business" if I quit, and I'll always resent that. I'll keep thinking about it.
Bob: you Must continue your quest for a bracelet. You are not alone. The chalice is just out of reach.
And reading your adventures at the felt table remains worthy investment of my time. And it Helps me avoid poker Therapy with an expensive professional, or rebuying into those Venetian-Wynn tournaments. Final table contests are the best salve for your poker bruises.
Thanks, Larry. I'll be thinking about it over the holiday weekend. I know a lot of people live vicariously through these poker stories, so that may influence me.
I just added an update that I forgot to put in the original. When I had KK against AA, a K came on the turn but an A came on the river.
I agree that time off doesn’t affect the odds, but it can make it more enjoyable and affect decision making.
I read somewhere once about expectations of tournament poker:
Assuming you are good at fundamental tournament play and make good decisions, on average you can expect to cash 1/10 tournaments and win 1/100 tournaments. Now that doesn’t mean you’ll do that every 10 and 100 tournaments. It could work out to cashing 0 out of 20 but 6 out 30, or winning 0 out of 200 but 5 out of 400, etc.
It’s such a long run game. Emotional perseverance is essential. For me that includes breaks from playing.
Happy Thanksgiving to you as well!!
James
Thanks for the post Bob. Unfortunately I can relate. My recent 12 day trip to the Lake Tahoe WSOP circuit event had terrible results. I played 8 tournaments, with 1 cash.
I planned and prepared for months leading up to the trip. While there, I slept well, exercised daily, ate healthy, meditated, stayed God centered, focused, and made excellent decisions. None of it mattered.
I had the best of it so many times that I lost count. I was the chip leader through the middle of day 1 of the Main Event, until I lost multiple hands, with the best hand, through 2 levels, and busted.
Standard deviations. That’s all it is. Though that intense run of bad luck is outside the norm, it is still within the realm of expected results.
I have a bad taste in my mouth from that trip and will be taking time off from poker. I friend of mine said that I should be doing the opposite-that more play will smooth out the fluctuations. He is right, but my mental health is more important right now:)
James, I'm sorry to hear that. Most friends tell me to take some time off for a while when things are going badly. I don't believe it changes the odds, it just gets you in a more relaxed frame of mind. I don't know. Maybe it all comes down to luck. I made a little spreadsheet poker calculator and determined if I play just a little better than average in a tournament, my wins are slightly positive over time. But if I play average, then I lose money over time due to the casino fee. And if I play worse than average...
I keep thinking that maybe I'm just playing average in which case I'll rarely cash and even more rarely get first place. Let me know what you decide and I'll let you know, too. At least you have a WSOP bracelet, which shows excellence at poker--don't forget that.
Happy Thanksgiving.
-Bob
Thanks for the painful but honest read. Poker is a brutal game. I read that even the best pocket hand of aces only has only a 33% of winning. (Never personally confirmed but seems reasonable). If your bankroll can sustain it, I think if you quit you will always wonder if you should have kept at it. Just my sense from our time together. It will seem like unfinished business.
An interesting concept I read about it is that poker is a theory of pot acquisition not winning cards. Perhaps there are irrationalities that you can add to your play that may cause other people to fold prematurely to not end up in the all
Or nothing hands. Don’t know your play style well enough. But I do know you are very rational, and probabilities while rational only become more so over large samples. And you are likely in a bad run. I bid you peace in your decision.
Thanks, Charles. In my spare time, I'm writing a program to confirm the odds, but I don't have much spare time. Pocket aces in heads-up game (two player) have something like a 66% chance of winning before the flop. But I believe it goes down to 33% when there are 9 players in the hand. I've argued with some poker pros that playing against 8 bad players is a losing proposition and they've said that you just need to wait to play a great hand. I point out that pocket aces come once in 221 hands, and if everyone bets, you're more likely to lose than win. To wait out a table of bad players, you need a lot of money and a lot of time. In a tournament, where chips and time are limited, you're more likely to bust out first.
You're right that I'll feel like it's "unfinished business" if I quit, and I'll always resent that. I'll keep thinking about it.
Happy Thanksgiving.
-Bob
Bob: you Must continue your quest for a bracelet. You are not alone. The chalice is just out of reach.
And reading your adventures at the felt table remains worthy investment of my time. And it Helps me avoid poker Therapy with an expensive professional, or rebuying into those Venetian-Wynn tournaments. Final table contests are the best salve for your poker bruises.
Thanks, Larry. I'll be thinking about it over the holiday weekend. I know a lot of people live vicariously through these poker stories, so that may influence me.
Happy Thanksgiving.
-Bob