Variance Swings Back?

My friends all attribute my months of bad luck, bad cards, and bad beats to “variance.” According to The Poker Bank, variance is “the statistical downswings and upswings involved with playing poker.” Though really, no one talks about variance when they’re winning. They talk about skill or good fortune or finally getting what they deserve. So “variance” simply means, “that’s life and that’s poker and sometimes it sucks.” But if everything else is equal (in other words if you’re not a total idiot), then your luck should turn around eventually. As mine finally has. But will it continue its upswing or return to a downswing. I like to think that the upswing will continue. After all, that’s only fair. And life is fair… isn’t it?

Day 1

Last Thursday, I finally did it. After months of bad cards, bad runs, and bad beats, I made Day 2 (and in the money) in the Wynn Signature Poker Tournament.

One player amassed a big stack doing crazy stuff. Early in the tournament, he called another player's all-in on the flop of 65J with a 73 off suit, one of the worst possible hands. He was drawing to an inside straight, but a huge, huge risk or his entire tournament life. He might be one of these people who just keep trying to double up and, if they bust out, simply buy back in again. They do this until they’ve doubled their stack. I can’t see how this is a viable strategy because 1) you spend a lot of money and won’t break even until you last very long in the tournament and 2) having a big stack in the beginning has almost no relationship to your stack size toward the end. I know this not just mathematically, but because in many of my recent tournaments, I doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled up early on, only to lose my chips later when the blinds went up and I ran into bad luck.

It might have made sense for this player to shove as a bluff, but never to call a shove with not even a pair or an A. It turned out that the other player had AK. The turn card was a 9 and the river card was... a 3, giving him a pair and doubling him up. He kept taking these foolish risks but somehow winning. I’ll call him the “foolish player.”

Shortly after that, this foolish player got pocket As and the other player didn't believe he had anything, so the other player shoved and the foolish player called and knocked that player out too. Later I went up against him with... pocket As! I got him to put in a lot of chips. I "Hollywooded," pretending like I wasn't sure what to do before eventually shoving. He bought it, called with AK, and I doubled up!

Later I got pocket 10s and raised big, but another player reraised. I called and the flop was 5QQ. I got a little nervous when the other player bet big, but I called. The turn was... 10! I checked, he bet, I called. The river was 5. A Q could still win, but I took my chances. I bet big, and he called. I turned over my cards and he folded. I won a very big pot.

As we got toward the money, and the blinds got bigger, my stack kept going up and down but mostly a little above or a little below average. The foolish player sat down next to me with a small stack, but started getting amazing hands again and built it back up to become the chip leader. He was bullying everyone to fold by raising big. No one wanted to take him on and possibly bust out before reaching the money. I lost one big hand against him where I had AQ, the flop was low cards, and he bet big. I had to fold rather than risk my tournament life, but I have a feeling I was ahead of him.

I got A2 off suit and raised early. A short stack shoved. Everyone else folded. I was tempted to call, but folded. On the next hand I got A9, raised, and again the short stack shoved and everyone else folded. He had half my stack, so if I lost, I'd still be in the game. I called. He showed pocket 7s. The board gave me an A to win, knock him out, and bring my stack above average.

We were in the money shortly after that. My stack was $293,000, just about average, which put me in a good spot for Day 2 on Sunday.

Day 2

I was ranked 33 out of 76. Middle of the pack is fine with me. First place would get around $65K. Last place would get around $1K.

I started out not playing many hands. I played one and lost. The woman to my left got pocket Js three times, pocket 2s, pocket 9s, and pocket 6s in the first 15 minutes. She won some and lost some, ending up with a stack size pretty much where she started.

I got pocket Ks. The player to my left raised from $6K to $24K. I reraised to $60K. He called. The flop was A24. He bet $40K, I called. The turn was a 3. He raised to $100K. I folded. I couldn’t risk that he had an A, which he was betting like he did.

I got pocket 8s in the big blind. One player min raised. Three players called. I called. The flop was 894. I checked, expecting someone to raise. No one did. The turn was 7. I shoved. I got called by the same player to whom I folded my pocket Ks. He had pocket 7s. My set was bigger than his set! He needed a 7 on the river to beat me. He didn't get it.

I got AJ suited. A short stack with $100K shoved. I had about three times his stack. I called. He had A 10. The board ran out JKQ9J. I got three Js but he won with a straight.

After that, I was in a lot of hands, winning some and losing some. There was just too much action to record.

There were 62 players left. My stack was a little lower than when I began in the morning, at about $250K. Not bad.

I got K♦K♠ under the gun. I limped, waiting for one of the short stacks to shove, but none did. It was just me and the big blind, who was short stacked. The flop was 8♥4♥8♦. I shoved. The other player called with 9♥10♥. The turn was J♥, giving him a flush and a straight flush draw! It looked very bad for me. I had more than twice his stack, so I'd still be alive, but… The river was... K! I got a full house to knock him out.

There were then 54 players left, and I was short stacked.

Then I won a big pot with pocket 4s when I flopped a set against another short stack. I was up to 20 big blinds, with 48 players left.

I then got a Q-high flush on the river. I was heads up with another player. I bet small, and the other player shoved, as I'd hoped. He had a small pair. I doubled up!

On the next hand, I blew a chance to get more chips. I got pocket Js. One player raised. I called. Another player called. The flop was K32. The first player bet big and I folded. The third player called. I looked up and realized the big better was the foolish player from Day 1. Had I seen that, I would have called his bet. On the river, the third player showed pocket 4s and the foolish player folded. My Js would have won.

I had A2. The board ran out 8AKKK. I made a medium sized bet on the river. The other player called. I won a very big pot against pocket 10s. My stack was now above average.

Shortly after that, I won a really big pot. I missed my flush on the river, but I felt the other player was bluffing, so I confidently bet big and after thinking for a while, he folded. Whew!

Then there were 36 players left.

But I lost about half my stack. I raised on the button with A9 suited. The small blind shoved. I called. He had QJ, so it looked very good for me until the board ran out 9JJ4Q, giving him a full house.

Fortunately I got some of it back from that player on the next hand. I had A♦10♦. That player raised. I shoved. Everyone folded.

Then there were 27 players left, at which point we had a redraw where they randomized the players at the tables. My stack was a bit short, but I was just so happy to have made it so far. It's been a long time since I made it that far.

The big stack under the gun min raised. Another player reraised. I shoved with AK. I got called by the first player who had... AA. The board ran out QJ98...4. I almost got there with a straight, but I busted out at #23.

I made some money, had a great time, and believe I played a near-perfect game. It felt good. Will the pendulum keep swinging in my direction or will it turn back soon? I’ll let you know. Thanks for sticking with me and cheering me on.