Three Scenarios

Mistakes or bad luck; you decide

I really didn't want to write about this because I feel so stupid and disappointed in myself, but I figured if I'm going to write about my poker play, I have to include everything: the good, the bad, and the stupid.

I'm going to describe three recent scenarios and let you tell me in the comments what I did do, didn't do, or should have done.

Scenario 1

This week, I played in the North American Poker Tour (NAPT) series, a major tournament at the Resorts World casino. I only have time for the first multi-day tournament because I'm traveling in the next couple weeks, but you'll learn that I squeezed in a couple small one-day tournaments, too.

I entered several times on Thursday and didn't do well. I entered again on Sunday. I had plans that morning, so I entered very late and thus started with a relatively small stack. On my second hand I got pocket As. The player to my right had a very big stack and raised. I reraised. Everyone else folded. She reraised me. I reraised again. She shoved and I called. She had AK. I won and doubled up. I continued to get great hands, playing roughly every other hand and winning about 9 out of 10. One time, I got pocket 8s and flopped a set, taking a giant pot from the table chip leader. Let's call him Mr. Big Chips because at that point, I became the table chip leader. The average stack in the tournament was about $50K, and I had about $150K. It felt great.

The player to my right sincerely congratulated me on my great luck, even after I knocked her out a few hands later. We talked about how when you win lots of hands, it’s easy to begin thinking that you're invulnerable. And then you start making stupid plays. How ironic.

On Thursday, I had sat next to Adam Walton who had placed third in the WSOP Main Event, cashing about $4 million. I mean real money, not poker chips. Someone asked him if he had a hard time sleeping during the WSOP, worrying about the next day of play. He had played 10 days straight to reach the final table. He said he was so exhausted that every night he hit the bed and fell hard into slumber. I interjected that I only lose sleep after playing badly and agonizing over it. Fortunately that hadn't happened in a while, I said. Oh, more irony.

Back to Sunday. I got dealt A♥K♦. I bet big and Mr. Big Chips called. The flop was 8♠Q♠J♦. I bet and he called. The turn was 10♥. I had the nuts, a straight to the ace, but told myself to slow down if another spade came or the board paired. In the first case, he could have a flush and in the second case he could have a full house. No need to take unnecessary risks, I told myself. I bet big again and he called again. The river was 8♦. I bet $20K. He asked me how much I had bet, hesitated, then went all in.

Somehow I got into my head that he had been chasing a spade flush and didn’t get it. He had been so smug at the table, and I had seen him bet big on the river as a bluff, but what I should have remembered is that he did that against a smaller stack, not a bigger stack like mine. Also, I have a rule that I drilled into my head when I first started playing tournaments years ago: no decent player shoves on the river as a bluff. I would often call shoves on the river, thinking I was being bluffed, but eventually learned that was rarely true. Few players will put their entire tournament life at risk this way. If I folded and it turned out he was bluffing, I would lose some chips but still be the table chip leader. But if I called and he actually had the top hand... before I knew it, my hand shoved my chips into the center and my mouth said, "call." I wish I had at least spent a little more time thinking about it, because he turned over pocket Js for a full house. I was then back down to starting stack. A few bad beats later and I was out.

Feel free to comment on this first scenario, but I know it was my mistake. A huge mistake. I was really upset with myself for taking a giant lead and in one hand destroying it with an amateur mistake. Getting to a giant stack mid-way through a tournament is hard to do. Amazingly, I had done it in about a half hour and then lost it in about 5 minutes.

Scenario 2

Determined to get back on that bicycle again, yesterday I entered a small one-day tournament. Things were going well as my stack hovered just about average for several hours, increasing slowly as the average stack size increased. Then Will "The Thrill" Failla sat down. I said, "Hi Will. You slumming?" He said, "What do you mean?" It turns out he meant to register for a different tournament. Management told him he couldn't get his money back because he'd already sat down and played a hand, so he begrudgingly remained and complained about it. He announced he was going to just burn off his stack so he could play in the satellite tournament later. The player to my left got excited about getting those chips. I noticed, though, that Will would occasionally shove, but only when he actually had a great hand. And despite himself, he kept winning and stacking up.

At one point I got AQ and Will shoved. I had about average stack but decided it was a good time to take a risk, so I called with my smaller stack. The player on my left was salivating over Wills's chips and mumbled out loud for about 3 minutes about calling or not calling. He really wanted Will’s chips as if they were rare, autographed, celebrity chips. He finally made the call with AJ. Will turned over AK. The cards on the board didn’t help anyone, so Will once again reluctantly scooped up our chips as we busted out.

I feel like this was a decent calculated risk that just didn’t work out. What do you think?

As a side note, Will actually won the tournament he didn’t even mean to enter.

Scenario 3

There was still a one-day tournament available that evening, so of course I bought into that one. It started at 6 PM and only attracted a total of 35 players, the top 6 of which would cash. The buy-in was $250, and I felt a little silly that they placed us next to the Super High Roller tournament with a buy-in of $25,000. I recognized many of the players in that tournament—the top world champions—and I hoped they didn’t recognize me.

The tournament went on for hours until we got to the final 7 players, right on the bubble (maybe you know what’s coming). My stack had been going up and down all evening but hovered around average. I got short-stacked for a while at this final table and then started winning hands to build it up. It was about 1:30 AM, and I had been listening to the dealer ramble nonstop for about 2 hours. She talked about whatever came to mind at about twice human speed, yet she dealt flawlessly the whole time. Everyone at the table seemed enthralled and asked her more questions and laughed at her silly jokes. She wasn’t particularly interesting, and not particularly attractive, but the guys in their twenties, thirties, and older, as well as the one woman at the table, all seemed entranced by her. I just got a headache and wanted it to stop.

One player, let’s call him The Big Hick, was obviously just off the farm, judging by his overalls and his accent and his wife who came to ask him for “more f…ing money for those stupid, f…ing slot machines.” He had a giant stack and raised to two or three times the big blind before every flop, every hand, regardless of his position in the betting. I caught pocket 4s and he did his typical raise to $15K, which told me nothing about his hand. Most people were reluctant to call him or raise him so close to the money, so his game of raising every hand had usually worked to get players to fold. He’d shown some good hands like pocket Js and even pocket As, but I’m sure most of the other times were bluffs. One time I had gotten pocket Ks and reraised him, and he had quickly folded.

I called his bet and everyone else folded. Lo and behold, the flop was Q 10 4. I had flopped a set! I bet $15K and he called. Great, I thought, I’ll keep him in this hand and get more of his chips. The turn card was 2. I doubted that card could help him, so I bet another $15K and he called. The river card was J. What I noticed was that there were three diamonds on the board. A flush is fairly rare, and I doubted he would stay in the hand from the beginning to chase a flush. I bet $25K this time. He raised to $50K. If I folded, I’d still be in the game and possibly in the money, though it was only $420 for a min cash. If I called and he had the flush, I’d be left with about $40K or 7 big blinds, a very precarious situation and likely to bust out very soon.

I had seen Big Hick bet big on the river, but when another player then raised a lot, he had folded. I just kept thinking it would be unlikely for him to have the flush. Thinking maybe he had at best two pair, I shoved my stack. At this point he kept saying to himself, “Well, I’m committed to the pot, so I think I need to call.” By this he meant that he’d already put so many chips into the pot that it made sense to call me just to see if I was bluffing. This was music to my ears because I figured it meant I was right that I was ahead of him. Finally he called. I proudly turned over my 4s and he turned over K9 for a straight! He wasn’t afraid of my set; he was afraid I had a flush. I had completely missed that possibility. I busted out on the bubble.

I thought about this one a lot too, especially throughout the night when I was supposed to be sleeping. I decided that it would have been best to have shoved right after the flop when I had hit my set and he had an open-ended straight draw. He might still have called me, but given his hesitation at the end and the size of my stack, probably not. Or I could have just called his bet on the river, survived, and possibly made it into the money. Or I could have shoved immediately on the river because since he hesitated to call me after he raised, he would have had more chips at stake if I had shoved first, so he probably would have folded. What do you think I should have done?

About the author

Bob Zeidman is a high-stakes recreational poker player. He created Good Beat Poker, a free online poker site using patented technology for audio and video—see and hear the other players at the table if you choose.