Return of the Bad Beats
Since my major tournament cash a few weeks ago, I had to take time off for a trip to Washington, DC on business. Damned business, always getting in the way of the fun stuff. When I got back last week, I immediately resumed the important task of playing poker. I began going to low-cost tournaments around Las Vegas. With the WSOP in town, most of the casinos are offering their own alternative tournaments every day. The WSOP has also lots of low-cost tournaments going on, including The Colossus where the buy-in is just $400. About 20,000 people entered over 4 days, bringing the prize pool to about $7 million. About 3,000 will cash. But I won't be one of them, despite 6 attempts. First place will get about $2 million. I definitely won't be that person.
I also entered tournaments at the Orleans Casino and the MGM Casino. I didn't cash in any of those either.
Mostly, I just spent hours upon hours without playable cards as my stack shrunk to nearly nothing, and then finally to exactly nothing. One time I did get pocket As and doubled up. But more recently, I got those nasty bad beats haunting me again. For example, I was short stacked and got 62 in the big blind. One player min raised, another player called, so with enough chips in the pot, I added a little more and called the bet. With a flop of 267, I had flopped two pair! The first bettor raised big, the third player folded, and I shoved. I figured that if the other player had already made a big hand, he’d want to bet small to keep me in it. And I needed to stack up. He was “priced in.” In other words, he had put so much money into the pot already, he would rather call my bet and hope to get a good hand after the next two cards rather than fold and lose everything he put into the pot. So he reluctantly called with 78 for only a pair of 7s, giving me over 2:1 odds. But as luck would have it… my bad luck that is… he got another 7 on the river to bust me out.
Another time, I limped in with pocket Ks on a very aggressive table. I expected someone to raise, but no one did. The flop was 789. The other player bet half my stack. Again, I (correctly) figured that if he already had a great hand, he should want to bet less to keep me in the hand. So I shoved, and he reluctantly called. He had 9 10, giving me a little over 50% chance to win. A 6 came on the river, giving him the straight he was hoping for, to bust me out.
Or the time I was short stacked with a suited A9, and a big stack made his standard way-too-large pre-flop bet. I shoved. He called with A7 off suit. I felt great with the odds about 3 to 1 in my favor. Until his third 7 came on the turn.
Now, I'm just anticipating the WSOP Main Event this week. It's the world's most famous poker tournament, once every year, that every pro wants to win. The buy-in is $10,000 and first place should get over $12 million. If I believed in luck, I might think that I've been using up all my bad luck prior to this week, so I must get good luck moving forward. Or I might believe that I have a dark cloud hanging over my head at the poker tables and I’m just doomed to lose. But since I don't believe in luck, I'll just play my best and hope for the best.
But just in case, I'm turning on the lucky Good Beat Poker neon sign I have hanging in my office, and I’ll ask Carrie to tell me to "break an arm" before I set out for the Horseshoe Casino. And I still haven't washed the clothes I wore when I had that big cash a few weeks ago... Hmmmm... I don't believe in that kind of superstitious stuff of course, but it couldn't hurt to hedge my bets. Right?
About the author
Bob Zeidman is a high-stakes recreational poker player. He is also the creator of the field of software forensics and the founder of several successful high-tech Silicon Valley firms including Zeidman Consulting and Software Analysis and Forensic Engineering. His latest book is Election Hacks, the true story of how he challenged his own beliefs about voting machine hacking in the 2020 presidential election and made international news and (possibly) $5 million.