Onward to Victory?

(Note: if you want a reference to poker lingo, click here.)

So, despite all my worry and complaining, I’m still playing poker. But I’m feeling a little better about it right now. I entered the World Poker Tour Tournaments at the Wynn Las Vegas. On Friday, I played in the WPT Prime Championship Day 1B and made it into the money and onto Day 2 on Monday. The buy-in was $1,100 and the prize pool is guaranteed to be at least $5 million though it looks like it will be closer to $8 million, given the huge number of players showing up.

Here are some of the highlights of my first day.

I won a monster pot against two players including one pro that I recognized as John “Muscles” Gordon. I had 7 10 in the big blind. The flop was 89J, giving me the second-best possible hand. Another J came on the turn, which made me a little nervous because there was a possibility that one player had a full house if he already had a set of 8s or 9s. This happened previously (if you remember from my last post) where I turned trip 5s, but those two fives gave my opponent a full house. Or, however unlikely, one of the players could have quad Js. One the river came a K. The other two players were betting really big. I shoved on the river and the others folded. Whew!

I knocked out a short stack when I flopped top pair and turned a straight. I shoved and he called. He had a flush draw on the turn but didn’t get it on the river.

Shortly after that, I won two big pots in a row and knocked out another player.

Whew again! I had A♦7♣. One player raised from 1200 to 3K. I called. The flop was A♣5♣10♣, giving me top pair and a small flush draw. The other player bet 7K. I raised to 15K. He called. The turn was 10♥. He checked. I bet 15K and mentally took a deep breath, hoping he didn’t have a flush or full house. He folded. I let out my breath and felt like I needed a potty break.

I won a big pot from the table chip leader. I had A5. An A came on the river and he bet big. I raised and he folded.

I got pocket As! Two players called the big blind of 1200. I raised to 3500. The big stack reraised to 9K. Hurray! I re-reraised to 25K. He folded. I was then the table chip leader!

I won a hand with A 10 when an A came on the flop. This gave me twice the average stack, over 100 big blinds!

I got K2 in the small blind and was only in the hand because three other players had called, giving me good value for staying in (“pot odds”). There was a K and a 2 on the flop, giving me two pair. I bet and everyone folded.

Then they moved me to another table where the stacks were bigger. I was still above average, but I was no longer the table chip leader. This table chip leader was talking with a player across the table, so it was loud, about stopping terrorists. It was all so simple according to them. Something about how killing terrorists makes you a terrorist, so if you stop killing them, they’ll stop killing you. Who knew that two random guys at a poker table knew how to stop the violence and hatred in the world? If only someone in authority would ask them!

The chip leader, who claimed to have a WSOP bracelet, was also lecturing everyone at the table about how to play better and, to my surprise, they were all listening intently and thanking him. They were asking him questions about how they should have played the last hand and what they did wrong, and they were thanking him! I had stepped into Bizarro World! To his credit, the chip leader was winning hand after hand, building a giant stack. Maybe it was because the other players were all taking his advice. He kept saying, weirdly, that he wanted to move to another table because he liked all the players at this one and was being too easy on them. But they were begging him to stay and keep teaching them (not that he had a choice about it—you play where they put you). I am not making this up.

I got into a hand against this chip leader and caught the nut straight on the river. There was a possible flush, but I didn’t think he had it, based on how he had been betting big before the last card of the possible flush showed up. I shoved. He hesitated and folded, showing me two pair. He said “I had you after the flop. I should have shoved.” I said “You think you had me after the flop? OK.” As I’d hoped, it put him on tilt trying to figure out what I had and how I could have shoved on the river. If I had two pair or a set after the flop, the board only got worse for me by the river. He was right, of course, but it had its effect: making him question his own play and wondering if I was an idiot who didn’t know how to play poker.

They moved me to yet another table. I immediately got dealt A♣6♣. One player raised. I called. The flop had a 6 and one ♣. Interestingly, the 6 kept me in the hand. You’ll learn later why that was interesting. The other player bet. I called. The turn brought another ♣. He bet big; I called. The river brought yet another ♣, giving me the nut flush, the absolute best hand possible. He bet really big. I hesitated for a long time and then raised him. My acting was obviously really bad as the other player called out my “Hollywooding” as he reluctantly folded. He told me he had pocket 6s, meaning he had flopped a set and was way ahead of me until the final river card when I took the lead. That was close! The other player took it badly but continued to be friendly with me. I knew how he felt. He had a large stack that dwindled rapidly as he lost almost every hand after that, despite often starting with the best hand. I’ve had days like that. In fact, I’ve had an entire year like that. He busted out shortly before the money.

Things started going a little south when I had an average stack and a short stack shoved. Everyone folded to me in the big blind. I had K♦Q♦, a very good hand for calling a short stack shove, so I called. He showed 6♦7♦, sighed, and got up to collect his things. I was a two-to-one favorite, but the board ran out 656… 10… 7. He’d gotten a full house and took about 25% of my stack. I won and lost a few hands after that but made Day 2, and in the money, with 155,500 in chips. I’ll be starting Day 2 with only 15.5 big blinds. I’ve come back from much less, but I’ll need to get a great hand very soon on Monday to stay alive. On my first hand on Monday, I want to get AA against two players who both have KK. We’ll see if I get this Hanukkah gift.

Friday went like I feel that a poker tournament should go. For the past two weeks, and most of the past year, my cards seemed unusually distributed toward bad hands and bad beats. In other words, the last year seemed to be unusually biased. Of course, this can happen by chance, but it just seems unlikely. On Friday, the cards felt well-distributed among high cards and low cards, winners and losers. Was that just my imagination? Was Friday actually an unusually good day of cards and the past year was actually typical? In any case, with a card distribution like Friday, which felt right, I can generally navigate the bad hands to minimize my losses and utilize the good hands to optimize my winnings. They key question for me moving forward with poker is: Are the bad cards and bad beats I’ve been experiencing actually the normal distribution of cards even though psychologically it feels wrong, or have I been experiencing a long streak that will eventually turn around?

We’ll see how the cards are distributed in the future. Particularly on Day 2 on Monday. As always, wish me luck. And put your thoughts in the comments.

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If you like my poker blogs, you’ll like my book Election Hacks, a first-hand account of the story of my debunking the 2020 election fraud “proof” of pillow salesman Mike Lindell and the subsequent arbitration that awarded me $5 million.