Nine Plays for Your Review
(Note: if you want a reference to poker lingo, click here.)
The feedback from my last post was that if I enjoy playing poker, and I can still afford it, I should keep playing if for no other reason that so many people enjoy hearing about my poker escapades. One reader also said privately that I should consider that if my losses have been occurring for this long, that I may not be good at it and I may never make money at poker. That is true, and that summarizes my dilemma. Since there’s a big tournament series this month at the Wynn, with buy-in fees as low as $600 and prize pools of several million dollars, I’m going to keep playing through the end of the year. So far, though, I haven’t performed well in this series.
In the last few weeks, I’ve gone back to losing hands that I think I should win on average. Maybe there aren’t enough samples to judge or maybe I’m calculating the odds wrong, or maybe I’m playing them wrong. Here are some hands that got me busted out or destroyed most of my stack. I’d like your thoughts in the comments section on which one I played wrong and how I should have played it.
Hand 1
I got pocket Qs early on at a very aggressive table where players were doing a lot of shoving pre-flop. It was a small buy-in fee ($600) but a large prize pool guarantee ($200K) with a large starting stack, so I think people were willing to try to double up quickly and if they failed, just buy back in. I got dealt pocket Qs. I raised significantly pre-flop. Another player shoved. I called. He had pocket Ks. My hand didn’t improve, so I busted out.
Hand 2
I reentered that tournament, was seated at the same seat at the same table, and was immediately dealt pocket Ks. The player who had busted me out did a very big raise. I shoved. The same player called with… pocket As. I caught a K on the turn and shouted in joy, but it didn’t last long when an A came on the river. I busted out.
Hand 3
I got dealt 56 off suit in the big blind. One player min raised early, and several others called, so I called with this lousy hand because I was getting a good price to stay in. The flop was K35, so I got a small part of it, middle pair. One player bet small, and everyone folded except me who called the bet, just so I could see the next card. The next card was another 5! I figured I must have the best hand with trip 5s, so I checked. The other player bet again, and I called the bet again. The river was a 9. I bet but, but the other player shoved his very large stack. I thought he might be trying to bluff me off my hand. In previous hands, I had pairs of aces and other high hands, but he would bet so much on the river that I had to fold, but he had never bet his entire stack. Each of those times, I had assumed that he had at least two pair, so I folded. I was getting tired of folding good hands to him, which may have affected my judgment. And I really wasn’t thinking about the player, which is as important and sometimes more important than understanding the cards and the statistics. He was an older gentleman who had been folding a lot of hands. In casual conversation at the table, he said he never rebought into a tournament. If he busted out, he was insistent that he would just go play a cash game. I judged him to be sincere about this. Anyway, one thing I learned early in my poker “career” is that most good players will not shove on the river card as a bluff. It’s too risky. If a decent player shoves after the last card is dealt, he or she has a great hand and believes that the other player has a lesser great hand. But it still could have been a bluff using reverse psychology, so… I called. It turned out he had pocket 3s for a full house. I busted out. I think this particular play was a mistake on my part. I didn’t need to risk my entire tournament life on trip 5s. Whenever there’s a pair on the board, there’s a significant chance that a player has a full house.
Hand 4
I was getting toward the end of the tournament day, and we were nearing the money, meaning after a few more players were eliminated, everyone remaining would get money. Maybe a dozen players needed to be eliminated. At this point, most players start playing very conservatively, not wanting to bust out after 8 to 12 hours of play with no money to show for it. Only the players with big stacks play loose at this point, because they can bully players off good hands with the threat of busting the shorter stacks out. I was a bit short stacked and got AJ, a very good hand. I was in the hand with one other player who had about three times my stack. I recall he had raised pre-flop and I had called. The flop was KQ3, giving me a really big straight draw (a “broadway,” meaning the best possible straight, to the ace). I decided to shove, expecting him to fold, but after some hesitation, he called with 3♥4♥. First, why was he even in this hand with such bad cards? Some people love suited connectors, but the chances of these cards winning were very low. And with that flop, a pair of 3s was unlikely to be the best hand. I don’t remember there being hearts on the board, but maybe there were. From his point of view, he should have been scared of me having any K or Q. I didn’t have that, but I did have two more cards to get any 10, A, J, or KQ to win the hand, as long as a 3 or 4 didn’t show up. Potentially losing one third of his stack to me wouldn’t have knocked him out but would have put him in a vulnerable position. It seemed to me to be a very bad call on his part, but none of my cards came, so I busted out.
Hand 5
I got dealt KQ. One player min raised, and three other players called. The flop was AK4. No one bet, which led me to believe no one had an A. If they did, they would want to bet to get out players who did not have an A. This would 1) give them information about who else had an A and 2) eliminate players with a small pair who might improve their hand on the next card. So I assumed that no one had an A, making my pair of Ks probably the best hand. The turn card was another A. I already believed that no one had an A, but this reinforced that idea because the more As on the board, the less chance someone had one in their hand. So I bet big. Everyone folded except the one player who actually did have an A. Why hadn’t he bet after the flop? I don’t recall if I busted out or just lost a lot of chips.
Hand 6
I was short stacked when I got A2 in the big blind. There were three players in the hand, including me. An A came on the flop. I shoved. Everyone else also shoved, and it turned out we all had an A, and each kicker was, of course, better than mine. I busted out.
Hand 7
I had a decent sized stack—about average for the tournament or more—and got A3 in the big blind. One player with about my stack size min raised. I called. The flop was AA7, giving me trip As. I checked. The other player bet half his stack. My options were to fold, call, or shove, given that his raise was about half my stack and the rule in no-limit games is that each raise needs to be at least the same amount as the previous raise. So I shoved. If three aces were out (one in my hand and two on the board), the chances of him having the fourth ace were low. It was more likely that he had some other pair in his hand. He called my shove and showed A6. At least there was a good chance we’d split the pot (i.e., “chop”) as long as cards higher than 6 came out. But no, only low cards came out. The one low card I needed was a 3 to give me a full house, but that low card stayed in the deck. I busted out. I lost some sleep over this one, but every scenario I played out in my head had me losing all my chips. If you see any way that wouldn’t happen, let me know.
Hand 8
I got 64 in the big blind. Two players min raised, so I called because I was getting a good price to stay in the hand since I had already put chips into the pot (the big blind and the ante) and only needed to add 50% more. The flop was K44, giving me trip 4s, a really good hand. One player bet a good amount and the other called. I decided to just go for the ride with my trip 4s, so I just called. The turn card was a J. A player bet, the other player called, and I called. I was just relaxing, waiting for all those chips to come to me when the hand was over. The river was another J. Then I got a little nervous. I had a full house, 4s over Js, but if any player had a J, they would have a bigger full house. But what were the chances? One player bet really big. The other player folded. I gulped. Now was the moment of truth, but I couldn’t find it in me to fold my full house. I called and, sure enough, the other player showed a J. That time I had a big stack, so I didn’t bust out, but it reduced my stack significantly, and I busted out shortly after that, just a few players short of the money.
Hand 9
I was short stacked, in the small blind, and 10 players away from the money. I had A♦7♦. The big blind, with a monster stack, was the table chip leader and possibly tournament chip leader. He had 10 or more times my stack size. He had been shoving against smaller stacks, knowing that they would be reluctant to risk their entire stack so close to the money. And if he lost, he would survive, still having a very big stack. I limped. As I had expected, he shoved and I immediately called, expecting him to have a lousy hand and me to double up. But he showed A♣10♠ and even caught a 10 to pair up. I busted out.
If you like my poker blogs, you’ll like my book Election Hacks, a first-hand account of the story of my debunking the 2020 election fraud “proof” of pillow salesman Mike Lindell and the subsequent arbitration that awarded me $5 million.