Maybe Next Year

But it wasn’t all bad

I started celebrating America’s Independence Day by attempting to gain independence from bad luck! I entered the World Series of Poker Main Event for the first-place prize of $10 million. I was torn between entering on one of the several Day 1s and trying to build up a stack or entering directly on Day 2 on Sunday. This is one of those tournaments that allows you to skip the first day. If I entered on Day 2, I would miss the chance to build up my stack on Day 1 (or alternately blow it all away) but you play a generally higher caliber of player on Day 2, which I prefer. Also, as the tournament progresses, your stack size on the early days has little relationship to your stack on the later days. But I decided to play Day 1. I don’t think I will do that next year.

I did a calculation that if I simply folded my hands all day, I would run out of chips at the very end of Day 1. So I decided that was not a good strategy. See, mathematics comes in handy.

Day 1

I got pocket As on my third hand. The previous night I had a terrible vision; that I got pocket As on my first hand, my opponent shoved, I called, and he hit something better, and I busted out. Last year, for those who don’t remember or didn’t read my newsletter, I got dealt A♣Q♠ on my first hand in the Main Event. The flop was A♦Q♦Q♥.  My luck had changed, I thought! I made a medium size bet, actually wanting my opponent to call. And he did! The turn was K♦. I bet much bigger, and to my delight, he called again! The river was J♦. Hmm… Maybe I should slow down, just on the off chance… so I checked. He checked. “Whew!” I said. I was afraid you had the… and he showed 10♦ for a royal flush. It used to be a penalty if you had the nuts (best possible hand) and didn’t bet. The only reason not to bet is if you’re colluding with another player. You should always bet when you have the best possible hand. However, some players don’t realize they have the nuts (like me when I first began playing), so the rule was eliminated about two years ago.

At that table last year, the other players asked him why he didn’t bet, and he mumbled something about being the beginning of the tournament and wanting to give me a break. I don’t believe that. He just didn’t realize he had it.

Getting back to this time and my pocket As, the other player bet, I raised big, and he called. I bet again on the flop, and he folded. Whew. A nice way to start the tournament, with a big win.

Then I lost a big pot when I flopped a pair of 2s with an A kicker, turned a straight flush draw, and rivered three 2s. But the other player hit a straight.

Later, I got QJ. The flop was KQJ. I bet $3K. Another player called. The turn was 9. I didn't like that. I checked. He bet $5500. I figured he probably had a 10, but I could catch a Q or J to win or a 10 to chop. And I still had a decent stack if I lost, and it was early in the tournament, so I called. It was a risk. The river was 2. He checked. I checked. He showed the 10 for the straight. I lost a lot.

Toward the end of the morning, my stack began draining slowly. I kept getting big draws but rarely hitting. Sigh.

Then I started winning small pots and stacking back up slowly. I was feeling better.

At the second break of the day, my stack was at $40K. This is way down from starting stack of $60K but still a lot of chips.

And then I ran card dead for an hour or two and got short stacked. Of course. That really sucked.

In the evening, I started to win some hands again. I was building my stack back slowly.

Then I lost a big pot with A♠K♠. Maybe I should have shoved pre-flop instead of just raising. The board ran out 7♥8♥9♠Q♠ 10♣. I had missed the flush and the straight. I tried to bluff on the river, but the other player called with 9♦10♦. Had I shoved pre-flop, he almost certainly would have folded.

On the button I got pocket Ks. Everyone folded to me. I limped in, figuring one of the other two remaining players, both with much larger stacks, would raise. But they just called. The flop was 789. They both checked. I bet $5K and they both folded. I was getting such great cards and yet kept losing hands or winning almost nothing. In fact, I had gotten AA four times, KK two times, and many times I had gotten suited AK, AQ, and AJ as well as unsuited big aces. I reached out on Facebook for advice; no one had any, but several friends wished me good luck.

I won a few hands after the dinner break, so I was up to about $15K, which is 30 big blinds. Not good but not terrible. Then I got dealt pocket 10s. I raised pre-flop. One player called. The board ran out 4 10 5 J 8. I shoved and the other player called. He had AJ. I doubled up! I thanked all my Facebook friends for sending luck my way!

And I even won another hand after that. I was suddenly up to $33K, which was 66 big blinds! And I continued to win more hands after that!

At the last break of the day, though, the losses started back up and my stack had shrunk to $18K or 30 big blinds. It was playable, but I really wanted to at least double it before the end of the day.

I got dealt pocket Js. One player raised from $600 to $1500. I reraised to $4K. He raised again to $10K. I figured he didn't have QQ, KK, or AA or he probably would have shoved. So I shoved for $19K. He called with AK. My jacks held up and I doubled up!

Finally, there was one more hour to go in Day 1. My stack was OK. No mistakes and no bad beats and I'd make it to Day 2.

I got pocket As and won a nice pot. Then I immediately get pocket Ks. One player raised from $600 to $1200. Another called. I raised to $5K. Both players called. The flop was A67, not good for me. Both players checked. I bet $5K, hoping neither had an A. One player called; the other folded. The turn was 2. It was hard to imagine that helped the other player. We both checked. The river was 10. He bet $7K. He could have an A, but I had put so many chips into the pot by then, and I thought maybe he hit the 10. Or hoped that he had hit the 10. I called, but he had A4. I lost a lot.

I got K♥10♥ in the big blind. The small blind raised from $600 to $1800. I called. The flop was K♣6♣8♠. He checked. I bet $2200 with my top pair. He raised to $5200. I thought about it and folded. He showed pocket As. Lots of pocket As at this table. I made the right fold, but I was getting short again. 😫

At about 2 AM, the bubble burst and I had made it to Day 2 on Sunday with $18,900 in chips. That would be 24 big blinds on Day 2. Not very good, but maybe I could get lucky early on Sunday.

Day 1

Day 2 started at noon. I was ranked 2978 out of 3144 players. Yuck!

On my first hand, I got A7 in the small blind. Lexy Gavin-Mather, a pro (whose poker pro husband Bob Mather I don’t particularly like because he once berated me at the table for being an “amateur”) did a min raise from $800 to $2K. I decided to stick it out and called her bet. The flop was 456. She then bet $5K. I was drawing to an inside straight but decided that it was too risky with my short stack to continue, needing one of two cards to complete the straight, so I folded.

On the second hand, I get pocket Ks on the bubble. I felt really good. The other short stack raised under the gun. I shoved, knowing he’d call me. He did call and showed AK. That was pretty darn good for me. Odds were over 2:1 in my favor. But the flop was QA10. Now only a K would give me the win and a J would give me a chop. But neither came. I was out after 2 hands.

I packed up my things, wished everyone at the table good luck, and lumbered out of the poker room. I have to say I was really disappointed. I had done better than the last two years, but about the same as the year before that, and still way out of the money. I think I played as well as I could, but the cards, once again, played against me. I wandered into a corner, sat on the floor and called Carrie. I wanted to cry, but these days, I only cry at sappy movies and patriotic events. Carrie sympathized, but there wasn’t much she could say. I drove home gloomily, listening to sappy songs on the radio.

Epilogue

I knew I had played well, so I gave it another shot. The next day, I entered a small WSOP tournament and made it to Day 2 and in the money, but with a very short stack of about 8 big blinds. I had a one-day interval to rest up, though two clients suddenly notified me that they needed a declaration and an expert report written and submitted to court by the end of the week, so I got little rest.

The next day, I entered Day 2 with my tiny stack and busted out after about 6 hands, but at least with a little money. Actually $1 in profit since I had bought in twice.

I took my winnings over to the Venetian and entered a pretty big tournament there. By 1 AM, I had one of the biggest stacks in the tournament, was in the money, and ready for Day 2.

I again had one day off before Day 2 but spent it researching and writing up documents for court until late in the night. Day 2 started at 11 AM today. My stack went down then up then way up then way down as I ran card dead for a couple hours. At about 5 PM, I busted out at number 39 out of about 1400 entries, with a very nice profit that, with the big WSOP tournament cash a few weeks ago, more than covers my poker expenses for a while. I’m still looking for that first place prize that has eluded me for a couple years, but this gave me the confidence to keep playing and keep looking toward next year.

About the author

Bob Zeidman is a high-stakes recreational poker player. He is also the creator of the field of software forensics and the founder of several successful high-tech Silicon Valley firms including Zeidman Consulting and Software Analysis and Forensic Engineering. His latest book is Election Hacks, the true story of how he challenged his own beliefs about voting machine hacking in the 2020 presidential election and made international news and (possibly) $5 million.